Saturday, June 8, 2013

Black Gold? Massive hoards hidden for ages? Not!



This is a repost that was originally published on 2/25/11:

A few thoughts on "Black Gold." I hate to draw attention to ridiculous notions with no basis in history or logic. But apparently this notion of massive secret storerooms of gold is still providing some with the comfort they seek in their aversion to taking action to protect their own wealth. So I suppose it is worth a brief comment.

I have noticed that the most cynical among us tend to view the world as an ant might view the giant humans that massacre hard-working legions of his own kind whenever passing by. And while I can, and often do, entertain such perspectives without accepting them, for the purpose of exploring probability, I can find no logical train of thought that leads to the existence of massive stockpiles of gold as the source of power for our evil overlords.

In fact, massive stockpiles of easily printed cash make a lot more logical sense!

The history of gold mining is well documented, as is the amount of gold in existence during various eras in which it was openly used as currency. So the existence of hidden quantities of the stuff has a tremendous logic threshold to clear before Occam's razor can even be considered against the supposed "evidence" rebutting massive quantities of known history.

And because of the non-clearance of this threshold combined with the relative scarcity of time, I find it extremely wasteful to explore the voluminous fiction that exists on this topic. And I am comforted to share this perspective with ANOTHER, FOA and Randy Strauss (see below).

This topic seems to pop up periodically, each time some poor soul stumbles across one conspiracy-oriented site or another. Each time it is presented, again, with the same zest as the last. And each time, logic, history, reality and fine minds stand firmly in the way.

Remember this Foundation X story from last November where a mysterious organization claiming massive secret gold offered to bail out the UK? I wonder why that story just kind of disappeared. You see, when stories are false, there is a lack of "infinite resolution" to be mined. Perhaps this story went nowhere because scam artist Ray C. Dam of the mysterious OITC that claims to have control of millions of TONNES [see pg. 195 in linked pdf] of secret gold was arrested in Cambodia on December 18, 2010.

This is the kind of resolution you find when you dig into fantastical stories like this. What a waste of time! You can learn a lot about the credibility of the Seagraves who wrote "Gold Warriors" by simply reading the negative reviews on Amazon.com, a big time-saver! Here's one:

Many of the earlier reviewers of "Gold Warriors" have admired the voluminous references presented by the Seagraves to support their incredible assertions. However, I'd like to point out that my personal investigations into a sample of their sources have exposed the Seagraves' quite cynical "research" methods. They are prepared to use sources that are laughably insubstantial, and then present these sources as if they are highly credible. The Seagraves also deliberately misrepresent the words of a source to make it fit the story that they wish to convey.

The whole of page 62 of "Gold Warriors" is given over to the Seagraves' theorising that nearly 400 Allied Prisoners of War were massacred after stowing gold bullion in a mine on Sado Island, Japan. This is outrageous. The source that they use, "Betrayal in High Places", is a book that looks extremely unreliable when first picked up, and its claims fail to be confirmed by any other historical source. In any case, "Betrayal in High Places" does not actually claim that any stolen gold was stored by the POWs!
I am one of the authors of a recent historical paper, published in the Journal of Military History, which has proven the Sado Island Massacre story to be pure fiction. The Seagraves are smart enough to have worked this out for themselves, but they have chosen to legitimise this fantasy in order to sell their books and CDs.

The Seagraves further illustrate their manipulative ways when they cite an innocent travel book as the source of their further assertion,
"more than a thousand Korean slave laborers ... on Sado Island also vanished without a trace" (bottom of p62).

This is just another dishonest misquote. The travel book (Waycott: "Sado: Japan's Island of Exile") actually says, "...During these years, forced labor was certainly used: of the tens of thousands of Koreans imported to work for Imperial Japan, more than 1,000 are known to have been sent to Sado. Of these, 145 are said to have 'escaped' (but where to?) and a dozen or so - surely a low estimate - were killed. Their existence became public knowledge in 1991, after records were released of Mitsubishi's distribution of cigarette rations to its workers."

Westcott's travel book is actually quite pleasant and informative, and there is nothing dishonest about his speculation - but it's only a travel book! Historically, it's clear from post-war Korean records that many "escapes" were indeed successful (often into the local community, or by fishing boat back to nearby Korea). It's also true that a relatively small number of Koreans were killed in mining accidents, and that no "massacre" occurred. Waycott doesn't allege a massacre in any case - but the Seagraves do!
(Page 62 of "Gold Warriors" can be previewed online here on Amazon, for those who would care to check for themselves...)

The Seagraves are obviously misusing these sources quite deliberately. I think it's very reprehensible for modern authors to push this type of mean deception masquerading as history. This is not a victimless crime. (My mum's brother died as a prisoner of the Japanese in WW2, and it is upsetting to see authors such as the Seagraves take these liberties with the emotions of dead POWs' families.)

Not content with pocketing their customers' money for this book, the Seagraves also use their book to continually push their privately-sold CDs, which they claim contain the "evidence" to back up their assertions. In fact, most of the documents on the CDs are just correspondence between "treasure hunters" - who also make their money by selling their Treasure Maps to the gullible... These are hardly independent or authoritative people! Many of the "certificates", which have been laboriously translated (possibly to tire out the reader) can easily be seen to be fakes once you look at images of the "originals". They have cut-and-pasted values for the gold on deposit!

The CDs even torpedo the Seagraves' own assertions in some places. On CD#1 (Jones.PDF file, page 65), a 1997 letter from "R. A. Medland, Senior Manager, Commonwealth Bank Group Investigations/Security Dept." [Melbourne, Australia] says that the gold deposit certificates are, "utter rubbish"! There's also a scary-looking photo of a sleazy Indonesian "lawyer" displaying the "certificates", and a hilarious document very reminiscent of a "Nigerian Letter", purportedly from President Suharto of Indonesia, on the same CD.

Gee, it's a pity these Certificates are rubbish - they were for 420 tonnes and 120 tonnes of Gold !
(US total annual production in 1940 was 155 tonnes, just to show how incredibly unrealistic these numbers are.)


With the kind of resolution one finds when only scratching the surface of these fantasies, I have to wonder that the appeal of such stories must come from their ability to assist in the smoothing of the rough edges of some other square peg these cynics are trying to jam into the round hole of reality. But again, it is a big waste of time to go any further than this when even the simple threshold of logic hasn't been cleared.

Before getting to the archived arguments, I would be remiss not to mention Costata's comment from the end of the last thread:

costata said...
Bron,

I have read the book [Gold Warriors] that FGA and TDF are referring to. It is mostly BS. The authors (husband and wife) have written about some interesting people and events in Asia. The husband was a journalist who had some good contacts. Some of the stuff they have written about did step on a few important toes but a lot of it is "ancient history" now. IMO Lords of the Rim is probably their most accurate book. It's the story of the Chinese diaspora.

The Yamashita gold story was actually true up to a point. The Japanese did loot gold in China and SEA.

My source was part of the occupation forces in Japan after WWII. He was an officer in charge of a unit involved in decommissioning chemical weapons and logistics. The Japanese stockpiled a lot of materials and valuables in old mines that had been worked out long ago.

A lot of the valuables the Japanese looted during the war were used to fund their war effort. Apparently gold was held in higher esteem by their suppliers than IOUs from the Emperor (despite his unique lineage). Bear in mind too that Japan had some incredibly rich gold seams in their local mines as well. Nothing like the scale of a Boddington of course.

Here's a WA connection you might be interested in. After Australia began to trade with Japan again post war some of the big Japanese trading houses had maps of promising resource regions in WA that the locals had never seen before. The story goes that prior to, and during WWII, the Japanese put teams of engineers into remote areas of WA to identify promising areas for resource exploration. There could be other ways they acquired the maps but as the saying goes "never let the truth get in the way of a good story".

Cheers

And now I take you back a decade to early 2001, when FOA and Randy "@ The Tower" Strauss took on the reality-challenged cynics of the day with the sharp razor of raw logic and known history. Dismiss these great Freegold minds at your own peril. The comments are presented here in the order they were posted. And as is usually the case, the discussion evolved to the point of depositing the strongest arguments at the very end. My favorite line of the bunch comes from Randy: "…it remains my objective view that such tall tales must have long bodies and necks because they certainly have no evolutionary (historical) legs to support them."

FOA (01/10/01; 17:50:30MD - usagold.com msg#53)
24 hour hike.

Black Gold?
If I understand the reasoning, some people think there is a mass of physical gold out there and it's being used as underground money. This is what explains the low price of gold today, as all that black market gold surfaces?

Well, that may not be the proposition, but if any of you want to know; none of our evil outlaws are so stupid as to use gold for trading when there is literally "TONNES" of cash circulating around the world. Please, give all of us a "logic break" for a minute? Why would I, as a crook, carry even one ounce of gold when three crisp $100 bills can take its place? Even ten $100 bills are easier than gold priced at, say $1000. And there is no shortage of that cash stuff around! Hell, I bet there really is more tonnage of "Black Market Cash" in the world than all the gold still in the ground. Cash for ounce,,,,, gold still priced in the thousands! Believe it!

FOA (1/11/2001; 11:35:06MD - usagold.com msg#54)
The Curve!

OK,,, I had my coffee and morning walk in the woods to see the wildlife,,,,, packs on,,, let's go.
It's always great to spend time out here,,,, away from the city,,,, out on the Gold Trail.

-----------------------

One more point on Black Gold as we walk:

All that gold, more than triple what we think is out there, would have been in existence for some time prior to our life spans,,,,,, given the timeline required to produce the stuff. Remember, Black Market production could not have existed prior to, say 1971, as even public mines were not making cash profits. Also, it takes real cash and investment to produce both White Gold as well as Black gold.

Indeed, simple extension of physics concludes that nowhere near that much "EXCESS" gold could have been dug over the last 25 years. It didn't happen, even with slave labor. Because, as in above, even lawbreakers have to sell most of the gold in the open just to cover the illegal "Cash" they invested in digging the ore in the first place. These guys don't do such a "wash" business when their cash works just as well in the first place?? Get my point?

Also, the gold would have been moved into the open as the majority of goods and services bought with illegal money, to create their evil lifestyle, must involve the White Market Economy too. Black market wealth is mostly in cash, it's just too easy to move and spend. So, there is no reason to go through gold first, just to buy in the real marketplace.

Further;
With all that gold out there, the Dollar powers would not need to create paper gold debits to placate strong dollar backers. In fact, I suspect they would have created channels to flush all that gold into the market. Illegal or not, this action would have suited their end result.

No, the natural trend of easy money humans, both good and bad would be to spend said gold for other consumable wealth and keep cash in the background. Indeed, this is truly what has been happening as regular investors trade physical for non-physical substitute gold. The small amount of physical supply vs the monstrous paper trading denotes how such existing gold has bridged the industrial use gap. It didn't take a vast new unaccounted supply to make paper seem real, just moving the existing into new hands did the trick. OK, we finished burning that story in the fire.

Randy (@ The Tower) (1/16/2001; 4:07:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 45719)
ORO: some of my thoughts on being "not ants"

In your post you make many worthy comments, and certainly the essence of human motivations driven individually by self-interest has not likely changed substantially through time or by geography. This issue of black gold, however, requires an additional depth of understanding suggested earlier this weekend--that we are not ants.

Loosely, I suggest that from the perspective of "antkind" in its struggle for survival, the world is the same as it ever has been...particularly with respect to the "rules of the jungle". And further, seen from the perspective of "the world" itself, the essence of antkind behavior and its impact is also the same as it ever has been (for most practical applications).

In stark contrast to antkind's "same-as-it-ever-was" interaction with Mother Earth, any meaningful assessment of mankind as a whole reveals a performance more akin to the evolving development of a single entity (such as a butterfly) throughout a single lifespan of that entity.

More fully said, as evolving civilization establishes new "rules of the jungle" (laws of the land), men -- like butterflies -- do behave differently depending on the specific "rules" for the stage of the game faced at the given time in life, even while their self-interested motivations remain. Such self-interest may require a body to crawl hidden and eat leaves under one set of rules while exposure to another following set of rules (i.e., opportunity) enables that body to fly forth in a display of nectar-sipping "birth" into the seeing world. And yet, even as the caterpillar's nature is inclined to a hidden existence during a particular stage, a premature and unintended flight into the open can occur even under the old rules of the jungle through discovery/conquest by superior forces (e.g., a bird in this extended metaphor).

Concerning gold and mankind, a rich history of conquest (generally by "official sectors") and of rule changes through time and geography have given ample opportunity for significant gold exposure--by force or by choice. It must certainly be acknowledged that once our civilization's "lifespan" developed to such a point where incentives arose for some gold to be kept hidden at the time of its discovery, clearly the stronger precedent of experience was that such gold was useful when "revealed" (spent) as a suitable alternative to its owners starving in the dark...and this would hold true for any point in this would-be black gold's post-discovery coexistence with mankind.

"Black markets"... "white markets"... go back far enough and you find there were simply "markets". Looking back to one full century after Europe limped through the economically plagued 1300's, estimates from historical evidence suggest there to be found at the time less than 150 tonnes in total gold. Over the next 350 years, and prior to the productive gold rushes of the mid-late 1800's on the several continents, the free and open coinage of precious metals brought to mints for ease of circulation (use as currency) in this more highly sophisticated stage of mankind's existence provided reasonable records and estimates that gold in known use in the civilized world increased by only 3,000 tonnes. Then, the "easy pickins" of the gold rush years prior to the cyanide leaching process instituted from 1890 onward yielded barely a tenth of today's highly scrutinized corporate production totals of roughly 2,500 tonnes per year. (By 1908, the new gold discoveries and extraction techniques had helped companies boost global gold production such that above-ground gold supplies swelled to nearly 18,000 tonnes.)

We must ask, when considering the political backdrop of this turn of the previous century, where was the incentive for significant quantities of that newly unearthed gold (or previous hoards) to be kept hidden ("black") from free coinage or other wealth-utilization? Arguably, only with the cyanidation process of the single past century do we get gold production volumes remotely capable of feeding black supplies on a level suggested recently by some posters here.

Equally important, only with our very modern era of fiat currencies and tax policies do we face "rules of the jungle" in this collective lifespan of mankind whereby self-interested motivations would favor a degree of unreported/hidden new production. Certainly too little, too late to provide the levels of black gold cited to exist beyond that which is commonly acknowledged as historically produced totals.

To wrap up this commentary, one other element warrants brief discussion. You said in your #45689:
"The supply of actual gold, not only paper gold, relative to dollar denominated debt had to be substantially greater than "officially" stated, else the system would have collapsed long ago as a result of over-leverage."

Could it be that you are overlooking an important phenomenon--growth of the (bullion) banks’ operating sophistication through global integration, and with it the growth of the participants’ confidence which counts for everything? For possible validation of this thought, look no further than the similar absence of U.S. bank collapses against the backdrop of meager "physical" vault cash which has been bolstered by sophistication of operation throughout the latter two-thirds of the Twentieth Century. To be sure, now that the banking structure has gone global beyond the safety of any deep-pocketed lender-of-last-resort, only additional time has been bought by the over leverage, and the eventual failure will be all the more spectacular when it occurs. My friends and myself in The Tower hold physical gold in anticipation of that day. The latest shifts in the "rules of the jungle" indicate the day is near at hand.

Randy (@ The Tower) (1/19/2001; 15:55:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 45942)
A simple notion for barnacle bill

Inspired by your comment:
"...until there is a clearer picture on the Marcos Gold situation. If those million tons of gold are really there; and they are in the camp of the enemy, then this manipulation can go on indefinitely."

As can be gleaned from my last post, the most powerful nation on Earth -- blessed with a large and technologically clever populace, abundant natural resources, and a vast network of supportive infrastructure -- is only able to produce 355 tonnes of gold per year through the highly scrutinized efforts of its publically owned mining corporations. Fanciful notions notwithstanding, where in space and time did mankind EVER find either the human inclination or capability to gather a million tonnes of gold from the firm embrace of Mother Earth?

Certainly, do not trust the precision of the conventionally accepted numbers of 130,000 tonnes as sum total of all past accumulations, but they come nearer the mark than the output numbers that could only be achieved through the efforts of Paul Bunyan and Babe, his blue ox. (I have it on good authority that Mr. Bunyan spent his days lumberjacking, not secretly mining or panning.) Let your common sense as born and raised unto the physical world be your guide in this and all things... Numbers are, after all, just numbers.

Randy (@ The Tower) (1/19/2001; 18:18:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 45952)
RossL...fun thoughts

"Randy. 200 tons a year for 5000 years. I don't know how the pyramids were built either. They look impossible to me also."

Sure, any combination of production values over years will provide the fanciful number, but will not provide for the sustained secrecy that must accompany it...otherwise this would not be "black gold" above and beyond the recognized yet still impressive (impossible?) historical production. One would think the history books and archeological evidence would be rich with tales and displays such overwhelming pre-Columbian bounty, no?

What say we ask YGM, our most favorite miner, if such numbers are viable without the aid of modern infrastructure and technology?

Otherwise, we are left only to ponder the grandeur of the black pyramids which as assuredly were built above and beyond those that have been accounted for, and the accomplishments of many moon landings that did not survive the oral traditions of our cave dwelling ancestors reaching back into antiquity...leaving us only with imaginations to fill in the gaps of astronautical marvels of what surely occurred prior to 1969.

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/28/01; 15:38:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46755)
auspec...another read-through may prove more luminescent

You said:
"Trail Guide has several times mentioned he was going to weigh in on the Black Gold issue, but I have yet to see anything of substance."

Have another look at FOA's latest (msg#56 "The Gold of Troy!") at the Gold trail. While he does not explicitly state that this commentary is to address the "Black Gold" issue among other things, it clearly forms the foundation of thought that more thoroughly builds the necessary historic context that I myself so failed to impress anyone with in several commentaries during recent weeks.

His skill of presentation in this effort greatly exceeded my own attempts, and I was quick to call attention to this fact in my early morning post Friday the 26th. Again, (but perhaps to my rooftop eye only(?)) this post serves to prepare the reader for engaging in critical analysis as to whether such magnificent tales of great storerooms of "black gold" can stand upon their own firm legs in a real world historically shaped by human motivation. For reasons I have previously expressed (however poorly), it remains my objective view that such tall tales must have long bodies and necks because they certainly have no evolutionary (historical) legs to support them.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/01/01; 16:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 47141)

Hello Trail Guide. Thanks once again for providing a well-lit walking tour through the past
In days past, when I finally chose to weigh in on the fanciful debate over the (un)likelihood of copious amounts of stockpiled "black gold" in existence in bunkers somewhere, I tried to put forth a focus on two elements that would satisfy any farmer regarding the veracity of such claims. (Why farmers? It has been my experience that a majority of farmers are endowed with common sense, and more importantly, they do not hesitate to use it!). I talked against the presence of massive black gold stockpiles due to 1) the many technical/logistical obstacles which do not support such levels of production in human history, and 2) the socio-political-economic realities of our ancestors which would not be conducive to the permanent suppression of any such easily and secretly mined wealth against exposure to the light of day--implying that the ancient chain of owners ALL denied themselves the improved life that would have come from spending what it was they held..."money". Not likely.

In conjunction with your #56, I hope that readers of your latest message come away with a clearer sense of the realities of point #2....that gold would not sit idle or hidden in those days if it could (and it COULD!) be used to purchase a better lifestyle. Truly, while human motivations remain similar through time, the socio-economic environment that we shape for ourselves has evolved, and with it, so too has evolved changes in our behaviors as guided by our unchanged human-creature motivations.

I am certain you have opened a door to greater understanding when you explained how the item selected to be spent for other goods was that item which would bring the best trade. For travellers on the road, the necessary convenience of gold dictated its superior performance and hence, its use, whereas in town, one would likely see a flourishing free-for-all "bartering" economy where gold needed not pass from hand to hand for each transaction.

The small parallel we might find helpful to draw is that modern times and commercial banking has given us all the "town" mentality whereby we set our gold aside as the function of our modern currencies allow us to bargain for the best trade for an improved lifestyle. But importantly, we must all recognize that there are distant towns that offer goods to improve our lifestyle, and also recognize that specialization/division of labor has helped to make us each "towns unto ourselves". It is in this sense, therefore, that it remains in our best interest today to hold these golden "hunks of metal" because as travellers in this modern-life environment we are ALWAYS "on the road" figuratively speaking.

But clearly, the problem many people seem to have with this concept is recognizing the necessary transitionary period we are in regarding a shift in popular western thought.

Thanks again for your sharing your considerable talents for elucidation.


It is quite common for unstable, overly cynical persons to seek out extraordinary explanations for ordinary events and conditions that seem to them like giant humans must seem to simple ants. But even so, it is extremely arrogant to believe that such enormous secret stockpiles of, to date, foregone wealth will be deployed in our time, in our "crisis," when it somehow remained hidden through so many generations faced with much more existential challenges than we face. It borders, in my honest opinion, on lunacy.

I highly recommend reading Gold Trail Three - The Scenic Overview which, as Randy noted above, was written by FOA partly in response to all this "Black Gold" talk in the forum. There you may gain a much wider view that actually does have infinite resolution, founded on both logic and history.

Finally, I will close with one last Thought for you. The actual quantity of the gold stock in the world doesn't matter nearly as much as its flow, or velocity, when it comes to storing value. In fact, the greater the stock relative to the same flow, the greater the price stability and therefore the greater the potential value. Again, the greater the stock:flow, the better the store of value. (See: How Can We Possibly Calculate the Future Value of Gold?) So imagine, if you will, a single individual who controls an amount of gold equal to, but separate from, the known stockpile. Mr. X has 160,000 tonnes, and the rest of the world has another 160,000 tonnes. Mr. X is the de facto "King of the World." From a game theory perspective, what would be Mr. X's best move, at any given time in history, with his gold?

Sincerely,
FOFOA

231 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 231 of 231
michael3c2000 said...

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2013/06/14/hathaway-gold-to-shock-the-world-with-1000-advance/

Dante_Eu said...

michael3c2000,

In the spirit of this blog, it would be more appropriate to say:

***
Hathaway – Gold to Shock the World with $1000 Decline
***

Let us hope. ;-)

Phat Repat said...

@NS
I'm with you. I was expecting one more leg up for paper. If anything 'should' move paper gold, it would be the anticipation of QE to the nth. And of course there's Syria as well. But, you are right, buy physical now and buy often; I am. And when you least expect it, expect it. ;-)

Roacheforque said...

Not only are the "usual suspect" news sources (and I use the term with great reservation) "surreal", I would say that the centrally planned group-think is more appropriately "irrelevant" in terms of what is coming, and in terms of the context of our understanding here.

Yes, we may post links to articles and such, but not so much to gain an understanding of reality, but rather more so to gain a perspective of the constantly evolving fantasy which has long captured the masses and holds them in check today.

It is useful to view the propaganda of our paper world, but as I said above that is a world where gold is denominated in debt, a fantasy world to be sure, where gold exists as a "commodity" in terms of it's paper denomination.

The path ahead brings us to a world where paper is finally once again denominated in gold, for this is what FREEGOLD truly is, a return to the true importance of gold, whereby as someone once said "no paper price will do".

Some have tried to explain FREEGOLD as a mechanism to govern fiat, or as a "link" to fiat, but I think it can be simply said that it will "denominate" fiat, and that description fits quite well.

As Another once said, and as I find myself echoing almost subconsciously above, gold can NEVER successfully be denominated in paper. It is too important for that, though men have tried, and failed, over the span of TIME.

Soon the importance of gold will truly be regained (and felt dearly by those aligned only to paper) as a force so powerful that it challenges the other force which men can never reckon: TIME.

Men will never defeat the power of TIME (which defines our mortality), though we would try to "price" it as in a rate of "interest" (a pathetically misleading term) which interest is truly priced in risk.

What central planners do today is to mitigate the risk of systemic instability. Their Lehman stress test served this interest well, but TIME can never be defeated in terms of RISK other than through the monetary and systemic utility of GOLD.

I too was once a fool, of Western thought, conditioned truly to see gold as a useless item coveted by strange misers and foolish idiots.

But I have seen the light through these many writings of A / FOA and FOFOA and now I see the foolishness of an upside down Western world caught in the vortex of its own U.S. of A-ness.

Even a simple gardener can plow the fields of time and eventually harvest the flower of understanding.

The stamens are sweet indeed, and the Sun and rains which feed them, like the gold which endures through time, will continue on when men and their paper promises are but dust in the wind.

This we learn ....

Roacheforque said...

When I read the "financial" bullshit, I often use a little word substitution exercise to help clear up the obfuscation.

For example I substitute the word "interest" with "risk", and is "risk rate" or "risk rate swap".
I also substitute "credit" with "debt" as in "debt default swap", "debt rating" and "debt card".

These little semantic substitutions do well to fertilize the flower.

;0)

Roacheforque said...

(sorry, change "and is" to "as in" above). After the second cup of strong java the mind farts blow out ....

MatrixSentry said...

War has traditionally provided excellent support for $IMFS. Growing another leg?

Dante_Eu said...

Wil,

Where do you find java that strong? :-)

Jeff said...

A COMEX like disclaimer has appeared on the SPDR GLD inventory data spreadsheet.

Note: SPDR Gold Shares does not represent that this information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. SPDR Gold Shares is not responsible for any loss, damage, expense or claim, howsoever arising, suffered as a result of reliance on the data contained within this file.

Grumps LaBastard said...

By the way the miners are being mauled, it seems something big will be announced. The Fed has to get out of this to taper/not to taper nonsense. Perhaps nominal GDP targeting? Or maybe asset purchases by the Treasury financed by the Fed's infinite balance sheet? That's what Ben said in 2002.

Edwardo said...

Instead of reading, Note: SPDR (Secure physical, dude, pronto) Gold Shares does not represent... It should read, Warning: SPDR Gold shares does not represent...

Roacheforque said...

Dante,
Folgers BLACK SILK with Splenda and heavy whipping cream and the amount I use for 2 cups is what they recommend for 8. I do NOT drink coffee flavored hot water all morning, two cups of a pot's-worth will do fine for me ;0)

And I must say, paper gold is behaving EXACTLY as predicted, so I might as well go on record right now saying that the paper price will continue to do these $25-30 dollar drops followed by a couple range bound weeks within that $15 dollar tunnel, then another $25-30 dollar drop ... rinse ... repeat ... ad nauseum ...

It can't plunge too far too fast, just enough to cool physical demand. But it will NEVER again "explode" upward as the traditional gold bugs continually predict.

It will continue it's slow decline (even as premiums for physical rise) until the final default and then we have FREEGOLD. I still think there will be opportunities to buy gold for $1200 when the paper price is $1050, but there's a psychological barrier below "paper 1K" that could upset the apple cart.

I wouldn't even call it a coordinated manipulation as much as a consolidation of interests. Many systemic entities benefit by a slow and steady decline of paper price.

If it collapses too fast many Giants will be hurt, and they know better than you or I how to prevent being "hurt".

They are MASTERS at it.

This we learn from time spent in the Garden ....

Michael dV said...

Wil
I would argue that the continued decline in the POG maybe far less predictable. If it has truly been let loose to falter it could reach a critical point at any time.
What if GLD gold is all on the verge of allocation? One day we read 1001 tons and the next day there is a sign that says 'gone fishin'.
There are just too many unknowns for me to get comfy with a theory of slow manipulation.

Roacheforque said...

It's not slow manipulation, it's a consolidation of interests, but you are right of course - all conjecture, and yes, the S could HTF at any moment, but I was just thinking this when it happened again so there is a self-confirming bias.

Time will tell ...

The main thing is, these endless paper-gold-bug "bottom is in" wolf cries have reached the limit of credibility (no news here) to the point where the conversation has changed now to NSA spying and related BS, they just can't focus on their dying hope of paper gold representin' the real deal and surging to the moon, so they change the topic and crawl under a rock, tail between the legs, whining about 1st amendments.

Meanwhile you have GATA calling Gensler a "Wall street watchdog" over at CFTC? Really?
You really can't make this shit up. GATA praising Gensler? It's like Lyndon Larouche becoming a mouthpiece for Goldman. There is no shock and awe anymore. As nickelsaver said, "Surreal"

Roacheforque said...

At times like these it is best to shave the fluffy white trichomes from the FOU, inhale deeply and attempt to contemplate Francisco Goya.
http://surrealistisch.blogspot.com/2010/10/fransisco-goya.html

Grumps LaBastard said...

http://worldcomplex.blogspot.com/2011/01/captain-bernanke-and-black-hole-of.html

FG would exist only within the black hole of negative interest rates.

Tommy2Tone said...

"If it has truly been let loose to falter it could reach a critical point at any time. "

Yea, that:)

I'm reminded of:

"There is a quote I like that comes from Le Metropole Cafe. It goes, "we will have deflation in everything we own, and inflation in everything we use". This is partly true. It is true during the run up to the rubber band snapping. It is true until we hit the waterfall."

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/08/waterfall-effect.html


"Have you ever stretched a rubber band until it breaks? You can feel the resistance grow gradually and observe the smooth thinning of the band until finally it loses its continuity and the two parts snap back stinging your fingers. A tiny observer of this exercise, perhaps a flea resting on your thumb (or an economist), one who doesn't really understand rubber bands, might swear that it could be stretched forever. The smooth change in the stretching rubber gives little warning of the abrupt (sometimes painful) deformation that is coming."

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/focal-point-gold.html

M said...

@ Wil

I am still betting on a paper gold rebound. It feels so much like the second stock dip in late 2008/9. Back then I just finished Ben Grahams "Intelligent Investor" and I had a few utilities and Dow stocks. JNJ was the worlds favorite stock and when it toppled the second time, that was the sign of the bottom. (I held on to everything painfully. My mind was preoccupied with a newly discovered FOFOA)

As I log on today I see Franco-Nevada on the worst performer list. FNV is the JNJ of the gold space. The next 2 weeks will decide it for this paper gold market. It could go either way.

michael3c2000 said...

Vewy skawy stuff.
Cleverly disguised as toys.
http://www.prism-break.org
As seen on Max Keiser, Business Insider, ZDNet, PC-WELT, SiliconANGLE, Slate, LeMonde, Futurezone, Network World, InfoWorld and more.
Excerpt: "Opt out of PRISM, the NSA’s global data surveillance program. Stop reporting your online activities to the American government with these free alternatives to proprietary software."
Kudos to the Turdville dataminers...

Tony said...

+2 to jojo for resurrecting those two gems. Time to RRTFB

S P said...

I know you freegolders are a committed bunch but what is happening right now is brutal.

In theory one holds gold for wealth preservation, right? But considering carry cost which is built into the system, the return is negative unless the fiat price rises in real terms. If the fiat price declines it's even worse.

Real people with gold are suffering right now, freegold or not.

Look the people with even some vague sense of what's going are the precious metal "herd" and they are being sodomized right now. And yet the freegolders continue to disparage them and pile it on, as if you shrimp are actually central bank insiders and in control.

It's like this: the precious metals market is still a bit of a sideshow, a forgotten part of the world, and it's having a civil war. The powers that be, the fiat dollar world, love it, because they can play the sides against each other. You freegolders are happy to side with the fiat world even as they rape your family and friends, because you believe some painless windfall awaits you, and you only, in a short amount of time.

burningfiat said...

Harden the fuck up, S P!

Goes for the rest of you silly whiners too!

Beer Holiday said...

Somebody call the waaambulance!

tintin said...

Hi Jeff,

Can you provide a source to the GLD disclaimer please?

thanks
t

ein anderer said...

tintin,

here you go directly (open in a text or table editor):

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/dynamic/GLD/GLD_US_archive_EN.csv

To find the published link go to

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com -> "USA" -> "Enter the USA site" -> "Historical data" -> "Spreadsheet of archived data"

Jeff,

good work. It appeared there June 18th for the first time?

ein anderer said...

SP,

you’re starting with a wrong premise.

"In theory one holds gold for wealth preservation, right?"

No, that’s not right at all. The mantra goes:

One holds gold for long term wealth preservation. And "long term" means at least many years: decades and generations.

See, the market of futures was born 1864, just a second before compared to gold’s existence, and this is true espacially for the market of gold futures (mainly GLD, 2004).

Yes, nowadays the price of GLD overshadows the value/price of the real. And yes: In theory this could result in big sorrows for those who have put their overhangs in physical gold.

But in practice the momentary decline will not effect them in any way. Because: They have decided for gold as a long term store of value. And because: Out of logical reasons this (paper) decline will not last very long (definitely neither generations nor decades). So they will stand this situation cool, calm and collected (and "with some popcorn").

"Definitely"? Yes. Please understand the logic of the Freegold theory. By reading.

M said...

@ SP

"the return is negative unless the fiat price rises in real terms. Real people with gold are suffering right now."

So gold is down from an all time high for 2 years and all of a sudden that is sodomy ? What about Nasdaq stock investors who are down for ever ? What about DOW investors who obviously didn't buy at the lows ? Who are down for 13 years ?

You are blowing even this paper market preformance way out of proportion. Not very many people only bought gold at the highs of 1900. Most people averaged in. More gold is being bought now at these low prices then was bought at the highs.

Dividends and interest don't beat inflation but I don't hear anyone compalining about holding costs.

M said...

@ SP

What is your alternative to freegold ? Will bond yields go negative for another 10 years ?

Will this bond bubble last for 45 years ?

byiamBYoung said...

Happy 999 day everyone!

Cheers

Admin said...

I want to put in a good word for black gold as a valid paradigm without honoring this or that specific claim.

(1) National gold production is a state secret in Russia, China, and certain other states
(2) Strong hands do not advertise their holdings or the sources of their accumulations
(3) Great accumulations have disappeared and (as with the Libyan reserves) we do not know the amount of those reserves except through misleading government "disclosures"
(4) A major discovery of gold would likely be managed in secrecy - the management of the diamond supply on international markets here is illuminating
(5) Where gold is a byproduct of certain mining or processes we would need to track all those outputs to have a handle on total gold production

We don't know what we don't know so let's stay humble.

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